Slovakia’s general election is taking place on Saturday, and it could have implications for European Union support for Ukraine. One of the leading contenders for the position of prime minister has expressed strong criticism towards Ukraine and the EU’s anti-Russian stance on the war. This candidate, Robert Fico, has pledged not to provide any arms or ammunition to Ukraine. Slovakia has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine since Russia’s invasion in 2022, but Fico aims to change that.
The election is expected to be a close race, with rival party Progressive Slovakia currently holding a slight lead in the polls. However, no party is likely to secure a majority in the 150-seat parliament, which will result in complex coalition negotiations and uncertainty.
The international focus is on how Fico’s return to power could alter Slovakia’s geopolitical course within the EU and NATO. This comes at a time when Ukraine is concerned about waning support from some of its allies.
Fico’s previous term in office ended with his resignation following mass protests over the murder of investigative journalist Ján Kuciak and corruption in Slovak business and politics. While Fico’s party, Smer, has traditionally been left-leaning on economic issues, it has recently embraced socially conservative, nationalist, and anti-immigration rhetoric. Fico’s stance on Ukraine is extreme compared to other EU leaders, as he has blamed Ukraine for the conflict with Russia, accused Slovakia’s president of being a U.S. agent, and criticized the EU as a “war machine under the influence of the USA.”
Fico has pledged to end all arms deliveries to Ukraine and resist additional sanctions on Russia. However, analysts believe that any short-term impact on Ukraine may be limited. Slovakia has limited weapons stocks available for transfer, and its challenging economic situation and the significance of the arms industry make it unlikely for Fico to cut arms deliveries. Fico has shown pragmatism in the past and avoided conflicts with EU and NATO partners.
Nevertheless, a shift in rhetoric could undermine international solidarity with Ukraine. Slovakia’s relations with Ukraine have worsened independently of the election due to a dispute over agricultural trade. The introduction of import bans on Ukrainian products by Slovakia, Poland, and Hungary has escalated tensions. This situation, coupled with populist parties skeptical of Ukraine gaining traction in countries like Germany, France, and Spain, could influence Ukraine’s position in negotiations with Russia.
In summary, Slovakia’s general election has implications for EU support for Ukraine. Fico’s criticism of Ukraine and the EU’s anti-Russian stance raises concerns about Slovakia’s future geopolitical course. While the immediate impact on Ukraine may be limited, there is potential for a shift in international solidarity with Ukraine and Russia.
