Zero net announcement: obstacles to UK government plans

The government has outlined its plans to drastically reduce emissions by 2035 and move the UK towards a zero-carbon economy by 2050. These include more electric cars, planting trees and moving away from gas central heating.

But what potential risks are there in front of ministers?

Some in the prime minister’s own party doubt the economic arguments in favor of a shift to what they see as excessive reliance on renewable energy sources.

Conservative Congressman John Redwood asked the House of Commons what would happen when the sun stopped shining and the wind stopped blowing. Another, Steve Baker, said that many “assumptions” are involved and called for ministers to carry out a “full review” of their plans.

Others are concerned about the cost to the general public, particularly those on lower incomes, and the impact it, in turn, may have on their chances in the upcoming elections.

Craig Mackinlay said it could become “difficult election” once people realize that the plans “cost them money” or mean “a not-so-convenient lifestyle.”

Given that Conservatives have an 80-seat majority, this is unlikely to stop any plan from becoming law, but if some of Johnson’s supporters aren’t persuaded, there could be political turmoil.

Shadow Environment Secretary Ed Miliband was fierce in his response to the government announcement, stating that there was nothing like “the commitment we believe necessary” in terms of investments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. .

Labor’s pledge to borrow and invest £ 28 billion a year in tackling climate change is a distinctly different approach to conservatives. The Treasury has said that taking large loans to reduce greenhouse gases goes against the “polluter pays” principle and passes the costs on to future taxpayers.

It is not certain how it will turn out in Parliament or if this could become an important dividing line between parties and how it would play with the voters.

The Treasury admits that there will be an overall cost to achieve net zero emissions in the short term, but sources point out that the cost of inaction would also be significant.

No full figure is given, but officials admit that new taxes will be needed to recoup the revenue lost from abandoning gasoline and diesel cars, for example.

The government raised £ 37 billion in fuel tax and vehicle excise duties in the 2019-20 financial year, which is roughly 1.7% of GDP.

A carbon tax could cover some of this, but revenues would decline as emissions fall, leaving a large deficit.

In an assessment to accompany the government’s carbon reduction plans, the Treasury said that “as with all economic transitions, ultimately the costs and benefits of the transition will pass to households through the labor market, prices and value of activities”.

There is evidence of public support for stronger measures to tackle climate change, but if families end up having to spend far more money to go greener, there may be greater unease among voters that the government won’t want before a probable election. general in the next two years.

In particular, there is concern that this could go wrong in some of the former industrial areas of the Midlands and Northern England, where Conservatives made big gains from Labor in 2019.

“Any policy we introduce will be designed to be fair across the board,” the prime minister’s spokesperson said.

One thing most governments agree on is that any effort to reduce emissions must be international if the temperature rise is to be curbed.

With the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow fast approaching, Prime Minister Boris Johnson hopes his plan will induce other countries to make similar commitments and increase the chances of the UK acting as an intermediary for a renewed global effort to reduce gas. greenhouse.

If the world’s largest CO2 producers – including the US, China and India – reach an agreement, it could ease domestic political pressures and allow them to claim more than an environmental “legacy”.

US President Jo Biden and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will attend COP26, but Chinese Xi Jinping is not expected to do the same.